If you run an SME and are deciding how much to invest in advertising next year, there’s one figure you should bear in mind: global advertising spend is set to grow by 5.0% in 2026 and will reach 1.06 trillion dollars, according to Dentsu’s latest forecast published on 27 May 2026. This represents slower growth than the 5.8% recorded in 2025, but it remains higher than the growth rate of the global economy (3.1% according to the IMF). In other words: brands continue to invest in advertising, even against a backdrop of economic uncertainty.
That said, the headline isn’t just how much it is reversed, but where y who decides that expenditure. And that’s where 2026 gets interesting for any business, whatever its size. At Vandelay, as a digital marketing agency in Barcelona, we sum it up like this: money is moving towards digital, towards e-commerce and towards algorithms. Let’s take it one step at a time.
How much will advertising spend grow in 2026: the key figures
Dentsu’s forecast (Global Ad Spend Forecasts, mid-year update, 56 markets analysed) reveals several figures worth noting:
- +5.0% global growth in 2026 and a projected +5.51 TP3T for 2027.
- 1.06 trillion dollars of global advertising expenditure in 2026. The one trillion mark was surpassed in 2025, a year earlier than expected.
- It Digital now accounts for 69% of the total investment across the 56 markets analysed.
- By region, EMEA (which includes Spain) is set to grow by 3.61 per cent in the third quarter, compared with 4.8% for the Americas and 5.9% for Asia-Pacific.
- Events such as the FIFA World Cup, the Winter Olympic Games and the US mid-term elections will act as a catalyst for spending.
The fact that the EMEA region is growing at a slower rate than other regions is not necessarily bad news for a Spanish SME: it means that the market is competitive but mature, and that it is execution – not just budget – that makes the difference. A well-optimised local business can gain ground without needing to match the financial resources of a multinational.
The “algorithmic age”: by 2028, three out of every four euros will be decided by an algorithm
The figure that gives us most food for thought is this: Dentsu forecasts that by By 2028, 75% of advertising spend will be “algorithm-driven”, that is to say, managed by systems in which the algorithm plays a decisive role in the purchasing process. Google Performance Max, Meta’s Advantage+ campaigns and automated bidding are examples that we already use on a daily basis.
What does this mean in practice? It means that the advertiser’s role is shifting. It is no longer so much about manually setting bids and targeting, but rather about feed the machine properly: high-quality first-party data, varied creative assets, well-defined conversion goals and clean signals. The algorithm optimises what you feed it; if you feed it noise, it optimises noise.
For an SME, this has both a positive side and a caveat. The positive aspect: automation makes capabilities that previously required a large team accessible to organisations on modest budgets. The warning: if you don’t understand what you’re asking the system to do or how to measure the results, it’s easy to blow your budget without realising why. Delegating to the algorithm is not the same as turning a blind eye.
Where is the growth: retail media, connected video and social media
Not all channels grow at the same rate. According to Dentsu’s own forecast, these are the ones showing the strongest growth:
| Channel | Forecast growth for 2026 | What does this mean for your business? |
|---|---|---|
| Retail media | +12,3% | Advertise on e-commerce platforms (marketplaces, online shops) where customers are already shopping. |
| Connected TV (CTV) | +11,5% | Connected TV and ad-supported streaming: television reach with digital targeting. |
| Digital video | +8,7% | The format that’s gaining the most traction, including the short videos that are already dominating social media. |
| Full video | +5,1% | The combined total of cable TV and digital TV offsets a flat-screen linear TV (0.0%). |
| Search | +3,4% | Growth is slowing because AI, retail and social media are competing with traditional search engines. |
The rise of the retail media This confirms a shift towards what Dentsu calls “commerce-led media”: advertising is becoming increasingly closely aligned with the exact moment of purchase. And the video, in all its forms, remains the key tool for brand building. If your SME isn’t yet producing short videos on a regular basis, this is the year to start: you no longer need an expensive film shoot to establish a respectable online presence.
Search engines are changing: why you need a “comprehensive search strategy”
The fact that search volume is only growing by 3.4% does not mean that SEO is any less important. It means that the search has become fragmented. People no longer just search on Google: they ask ChatGPT, look for products on Amazon, discover brands on TikTok and ask AI assistants for recommendations. Dentsu aptly calls this the need for a “total search strategy”.
This ties in with something we’ve been explaining on the blog for months: the GEO (optimisation for generative engines), in other words, working to ensure that ChatGPT, Gemini or Perplexity mention your business is no longer the stuff of science fiction. It’s part of the very same strategy we used to call SEO. In fact, Google already lets you see how you appear in its AI responses via the Generative AI report in Search Console. Ignoring this area today is like having ignored mobile phones fifteen years ago.
What does all this mean for an SME’s budget?
Major reports are designed for large advertisers, but trends trickle down. If we were to translate this data into specific decisions for a small or medium-sized business, they would be as follows:
1. No cuts to digital; rebalance within digital
With 69% of investment already going into digital channels, the question is not “Should I invest online?”, but “In what mix?”. Check whether you’re over-reliant on a single channel (for example, Meta Ads only) and set aside a portion of your budget to try out video or retail media if you sell products.
2. Prepare your data before your campaigns
If the algorithm is going to make more and more of the decisions, your competitive advantage will lie in the data you provide: a clean customer list, a properly configured pixel, and conversions that measure what really matters to your bottom line. It’s not the most glamorous of tasks, but it’s what separates a profitable campaign from one that simply burns through your budget.
3. Treat search as an ecosystem, not as a channel
Spread your efforts across traditional SEO, a presence on marketplaces where relevant, and visibility on AI assistants. You don’t need to focus on all of them with the same intensity, but you do need to know where people are looking for you you customer.
4. Start making videos, even if they’re not perfect
Video is the fastest-growing format and the one that best builds a brand in the medium term. Posting consistently is more important than producing perfect content.
Frequently asked questions about advertising expenditure in 2026
How much will global advertising expenditure grow by 2026?
5.0% compared with 2025, reaching around 1.06 trillion dollars, according to Dentsu’s May 2026 forecast. This represents slightly slower growth than the 5.8% recorded in 2025, but it still exceeds the forecast growth of the global economy (3.1%).
What is “algorithm-driven” advertising?
This refers to investment managed by automated systems in which the algorithm plays a decisive role in media buying (such as Performance Max or Advantage+). Dentsu forecasts that it will account for 75% of global advertising spend in 2028.
Which advertising channels are growing the most?
Retail media (+12.3%), connected TV (CTV) (+11.5%) and digital video (+8.7%) are set to lead growth in 2026. Traditional search is slowing to +3.41% Q3-on-Q3 due to competition from AI, marketplaces and social media.
Should an SME increase its budget in 2026?
There is no single answer: it depends on your profit margins, your sector and your objectives. The data suggests maintaining or increasing your digital investment and, above all, improving how it is allocated and measured. We cannot confirm an ideal figure without analysing your specific situation.
The picture for 2026 is not one of a market that is cooling off, but of one that is reorganising itself: more digital, more commerce, more automation. For a small brand, the good news is that the very same tools used by the big players are now within your reach; the bad news is that it’s no longer enough simply to “be” online – you have to do it well. If you’d like us to review together how your budget is allocated and where you have scope to grow without overspending, at Vandelay We help you put a figure on your strategy.
Sources
- Dentsu — Ad spend growth is projected to slow to 5.0% in 2026, whilst still outpacing economic growth (27 May 2026).
- International Monetary Fund — World Economic Outlook, April 2026 (projected global GDP growth).
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